Author Archives: pifferdavide

Here’s how to interpret the variation of new official daily infected, taking into account the large fluctuation in the daily number of tests from one day to the next and the progressive increase (trend, moving average) of the daily number of tests that has been up to today. Calculating the correlation between the variable XContinue reading “Computing new covid-19 cases after correction for daily variation in testing capacity”

There is certainly a significant amount of underreporting of coronavirus cases. This is due to people with severe symptoms being more likely to be tested, and the presence of a substantial asymptomatic fraction (around 50% according to some estimates, but likely lower after accounting for false positive rate). Underreporting should show up as the officialContinue reading “CFR and the positivity rate as indicators of under-reporting of Covid-19 cases”

Many people think that the official estimates of total infections from nCov-2019 are lower than the true incidence because of failure to count mild infections, or even worse, for some this is due to a cover-up by the Chinese government trying to hide the real entitity of the epidemic. I came up with the ideaContinue reading “What is the true incidence of Coronavirus? An empirical model using evacuees from Wuhan”

My work, and the latest paper in particular, has recently attracted some criticism from a small group of geneticists who chose to disobey one of the most basic and universally accepted principles of scientific research:  to provide references to the work you are criticizing. Despite this deficiency, I was invited by friends and colleagues toContinue reading “A reply to the Big Four”