Here’s how to interpret the variation of new official daily infected, taking into account the large fluctuation in the daily number of tests from one day to the next and the progressive increase (trend, moving average) of the daily number of tests that has been up to today. Calculating the correlation between the variable X… Read more

There is certainly a significant amount of underreporting of coronavirus cases. This is due to people with severe symptoms being more likely to be tested, and the presence of a substantial asymptomatic fraction (around 50% according to some estimates, but likely lower after accounting for false positive rate). Underreporting should show up as the official… Read more